Ecommerce 16% of total retail spending
U.S. e-commerce sales held steady in the first quarter of 2025 after the holiday season, while showing strong year-over-year growth that beats overall retail.
- Adjusted E-Commerce Sales: $300.2 billion, same as last quarter.
- E-Commerce Share of Retail: 16.2% of all retail.
- Annual E-Commerce Growth: Up 6.1% from Q1 2024.
- Total Retail Sales: $1,858.5 billion.
- Annual Total Retail Growth: Up 4.5% year-over-year.
Ecommerce was 16% of total retail spending in Q1 2025. After the big holiday season, sales stayed high. U.S. Census Bureau says seasonally adjusted online sales hit $300.2 billion. This was “virtually unchanged” from Q4 2024. Still, it shows a 6.1% jump from Q1 last year. That means solid ongoing growth. E-commerce CAGR: 6.1%. 
How much of retail sales is e-commerce?
Retail sales rose 0.4% from Q4 2024 to $1,858.5 billion. Year-over-year growth was 4.5%. E-commerce made up 16.2% of it. Spending stayed steady. People are still cautious. Inflation pressures buying, but high-income shoppers spend. Essentials and experiences like travel get priority over random goods. “Consumers are prioritizing their spending to a degree not seen since the pandemic,” said Marshal Cohen at Circana.
| Quarter | Retail Sales ($M) | % E-comm | Change QoQ | Change YoY | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | E-comm | Total | E-comm | Total | E-comm | ||
| Adjusted | |||||||
| Q1 2025 (p) | 1,858,471 | 300,226 | 16.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 6.1 |
| Q4 2024 | 1,851,799 | 300,357 | 16.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 8.5 |
| Q3 2024 | 1,818,951 | 295,269 | 16.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 7.3 |
| Q2 2024 | 1,793,556 | 288,535 | 16.1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 7.0 |
| Q1 2024 | 1,778,119 | 283,038 | 15.9 | -0.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 7.6 |
| Not Adjusted | |||||||
| Q1 2025 (p) | 1,735,730 | 275,759 | 15.9 | -10.7 | -20.3 | 3.2 | 5.6 |
| Q4 2024 | 1,944,449 | 345,872 | 17.8 | 6.8 | 21.4 | 4.5 | 8.8 |
| Q3 2024 | 1,819,936 | 284,795 | 15.6 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 7.6 |
| Q2 2024 | 1,818,605 | 278,255 | 15.3 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 6.7 |
| Q1 2024 | 1,681,698 | 261,108 | 15.5 | -9.6 | -17.9 | 2.4 | 7.2 |
The Long-Term Digital Transformation
Unadjusted Census data shows the usual post-holiday drop. E-comm fell 20.3% to $275.8 billion. Still up 5.6% from Q1 2024. Since 2016, market share nearly doubled. Pandemic helped push that up. Forecasts say it’s a permanent trend. Global e-comm in 2025 will pass $6.86 trillion. That’s 21% of retail sales worldwide.
The Technology Fueling the Future: AI, Omnichannel, and Personalization
In 2025, e-commerce isn’t just about online stores. It’s now about connected, fast, and personal shopping.
Key trends shaping e-commerce growth:
Unified Commerce: In-store and online work together. Buy online, pick up in store. Return online items in person. Physical stores push digital sales — 21% of online sales are store-influenced. Hyper-Personalization: AI tools use data to guess what people want. Smarter product suggestions. Dynamic pricing. Better targeting. 80% of online shopping gets shaped by personalization. Social and Mobile Commerce: People shop on social platforms. Facebook, Instagram, etc. Phones dominate buying, including payment. Sustainability: Younger buyers care about values. Eco-packaging, transparent sourcing. Now it’s expected, not optional.
GenAI in E-Commerce: Turbocharging Q1 2025 Growth
LLMs are changing e-commerce. One example:
Amazon’s Project Starfish & Rufus: AI That Sells
Project Starfish makes product descriptions, images, and ads with AI. Expected to boost sales by $7.5B. Rufus is their AI shopping assistant. It helps shoppers buy. Amazon says it will add $700M to profit in 2025. What this means for 16% e-comm share:
- Faster, better listings = more sales.
- AI chat helps shoppers. That means more buying.
- Small sellers use AI to keep up. That adds to 6% YoY growth in Q1.
LLMs drive real sales. That helped e-comm hit 16.2% of retail in Q1.
Navigating Economic Headwinds
Census data now matches new standards and focuses on employer firms. That gives better data. Retail shows how the economy is doing. Confidence, inflation, and strategy will set the pace. People will stay digital. Winners will use tech to offer ease, personal value, and speed. Next report is out August 19, 2025.
Ecommerce share of retail 16% in Europe
Top 5 European markets will grow online retail 7.8% yearly to €565B by 2029. Share will jump from 16% in 2024 to nearly 21%. In-store will slow down. Growth comes from better omnichannel and cross-border platforms.